Deep-sea mining: To Be or Not To Be

Is green energy truly worth pursuing if it has the potential to destroy an entire ecosystem? As the demand for battery minerals soars, prospectors are looking towards the ocean floor as the next best thing.

It may seem odd that the next resource scramble would take place in the dark abyss below, far from the reach of sunlight. Yet the transition towards green energy, as well as the demand for rare earth elements, is driving prospectors to explore the deep sea that is far from void. While deep-sea mining promises nodules rich in minerals such as cobalt, nickel, and lithium that would solve the problem of a battery shortage, as with any promise of riches, it comes with strings attached (U.S. GAO).

The International Seabed Authority (ISA), an intergovernmental organization tasked with regulating seabed related activities, sits at the center of this controversy. It has yet to issue regulations for commercial mining in international waters, even though countries such as Norway, have chosen to pursue mining in their respective territorial waters (Singh & Singh). As mandated by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the ISA started talks in 2021 after the island nation of Nauru, situated in the southwestern Pacific Ocean, established public interest in deep-sea mining triggering a two-year countdown. But by 2023, the UNCLOS deadline for decision-making, an agreement could not be reached. This caused concern among environmental and political organizations as mining could begin before the deliberation has concluded, as the deadline has since been extended to 2025 and it has already begun accepting applications (Ashford et al).

Proponents argue that deep-sea mining is critical for a carbon-free future as these rare earth elements are essential components needed to build sustainable energy sources such as wind turbines (The Economist). With the move towards clean energy, the demand for lithium, for instance, is expected to increase 42-fold by 2040 while graphite and cobalt are expected to have a 25-fold and 21-fold increase respectively compared to 2020 (Ashford et al).

The environmental stakes, however, are even higher. Scientists have already discovered over 5000 new species in the deep sea (Ashford et al). There is a significant chance of directly destroying marine life and organisms with heavy machinery and through poisoning from discharges coming out of the machinery. The likely spread of this spill to other areas of the ocean is also expected to affect top-level aquatic life, having a severe impact on fishing and food security. Furthermore, it is feared that noise and light pollution associated with the mining process will irreversibly disrupt the ecosystem’s ability to reproduce, feed, and function as a whole. Finally, even while it is anticipated that deep-sea mining will reduce pollution, the impact on deep-sea microscopic creatures, which absorb about 25% of all carbon dioxide emissions, may significantly offset the progress made toward a cleaner environment (Ashford et al).

Following the money to see exactly who profits, it is clear that mining companies such as the deep-sea exploration company TMC (The Metals Company), sponsored by the island of Nauru,  are the primary beneficiaries. Despite the enormous technological and possible legal expenses, deep-sea mining is predicted to generate $9–11 billion in revenue over the course of 30 years (Sumaila et al). TMC, tasked with mining manganese in the Pacific ocean’s Clarion-Clipperton Zone located between Hawaii and Mexico, is in a favorable position as it is not only entitled to a revenue share but is also fully exempt from any associated taxes owed to Nauru as per their agreement (Morse). Sponsoring countries could additionally see economic benefits, such as new employment opportunities that would stimulate economic activities. For countries such as South Africa and Chile that are currently engaged in terrestrial mining, this may not be the best news as deep-sea mining would be in direct competition, increasing the supply of metals and reducing the price and revenue from terrestrial mining (Sumaila et al).

Because of the enormous impacts on marine life, opponents of deep-sea mining are advocating for the development of technologies that reduce the heavy reliance on rare earth elements or find a means to extend the useful lives of products. Research on mineral recycling also details that it would reduce the demand for cobalt, nickel, and copper and remove the need for deep-sea mining (Singh & Singh).

A cost-benefit analysis is thus required in light of these factors to determine if the numbers add up. Efforts to mitigate these impacts face significant challenges. It is estimated that artificially restoring just one square kilometer of a possibly destroyed habitat could cost between $5.3-5.7 million per km2, with no guarantee of success (Sumaila et al). The short-term profits obtained by private companies and sponsoring countries would also likely be squeezed out between enormous technological and operating costs, possible litigation fees, mitigation fees, and environmental taxes, to say the least. As 2025 is fast approaching, the long-awaited decision of the ISA would impact not only the future of innumerable deep-sea creatures but also the course of the world’s clean energy transition. However, given these costs, it seems increasingly clear that the scramble for resources will continue to take place above sea level.

References

Sumaila, U.R., Alam, L., Pradhoshini, K. et al., “To engage in deep-sea mining or not to engage: what do full net cost analyses tell us?.” npj Ocean Sustain, 8 Nov. 2023, https://doi.org/10.1038/s44183-023-00030-w

Singh, Anuraj, and Rohan Singh. “Ocean’s Last Frontier: Hidden Dangers of Deep-Sea Mining.” The Leaflet, 16 Oct. 2024, https://theleaflet.in/oceans-last-frontier-hidden-dangers-of-deep-sea-mining/

The Economist. “Deep-Sea Mining May Soon Ease the World’s Battery-Metal Shortage.” The Economist Newspaper, 2 July 2023, https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2023/07/02/deep-sea-mining-may-soon-ease-the-worlds-battery-metal-shortage

Ashford, Oliver, et al. “What We Know about Deep-Sea Mining - and What We Don’t.” World Resources Institute, 23 Feb. 2024, www.wri.org/insights/deep-sea-mining-explained

U.S. Government Accountability Office, “Deep-Sea Mining Could Help Meet Demand for Critical Minerals, but Also Comes with Serious Obstacles.” U.S. GAO, 16 Dec. 2021, Deep-Sea Mining Could Help Meet Demand for Critical Minerals, But Also Comes with Serious Obstacles | U.S. GAO

Morse, Ian. “Canadian Miner Looms Large as Nauru Expedites Key Deep-Sea Mining Rules.” Mongabay Environmental News, 29 July 2021, https://news.mongabay.com/2021/07/canadian-miner-looms-large-as-nauru-expedites-key-deep-sea-mining-rules/