From Trilemma to Triumph: Does the Windsor Framework do Enough to Quell Uncertainty Around Northern Ireland-Irish Trade?
The Windsor framework, showcased by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, attempts to address the Brexit Trilemma concerning Northern Ireland-Irish trade. While welcomed for easing certain trade frictions, concerns from the Democratic Unionist Party raise questions about its long-term stability and impact on Irish land and sea trade, highlighting the delicate balance needed to navigate economic and political challenges in post-Brexit relations.
The Windsor framework, proudly shown off by the 5th consecutive Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, is maybe the perfect example of Conservative policy over the last thirteen years. The overwhelming support it has received is laced with irony, for the framework is ultimately a partial clean-up job of a mess created by David Cameron and exacerbated by Theresa May, Boris Johnson, and Liz Truss. This framework is one of many problems that has perpetuated the Brexit referendum, especially when observing its economic consequences. This particular framework was so serious it received its own name, the Brexit Trilemma. The Windsor framework attempts to reconcile the three conflicting objectives: leaving the European Union (EU) single market and customs union, a lack of a creation of a sea border between Northern Ireland (NI) and Great Britain, and the dismantling of a hard border between NI and Ireland. The inability of three successive British governments to satisfactorily resolve these issues has meant the Windsor framework has been welcomed with relatively open arms. Still, political outrage from the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has led to questions regarding the long-term stability of the framework and the future of trade across Irish land and sea.
The crux of the trilemma is the uncertainty surrounding goods entering NI from Britain. As Britain has left the EU, they are no longer subject to EU regulations. So theoretically, goods could enter NI and go on into Ireland, still part of the EU. These goods would never be inspected at EU standards as there is no border inspection infrastructure between NI and Ireland due to the Good Friday agreement. To rectify the issue, the Windsor Framework attempts to differentiate between trusted and untrusted traders crossing the Irish sea. A two-lane policy tries to distinguish between the traders. The green lane is for trusted (typically large) traders claiming to sell goods only within NI and therefore face reduced paperwork. The red lane is for goods which may cross the Irish border and enter the EU, and so require more thorough checks. To further ease EU concerns regarding unregulated British products, stickers with a ‘not for sale within the EU’ are placed on products destined for the green lane. Practically the framework is working as intended, since its implementation at the start of this October it has run remarkably smooth. The only protests have come from the DUP. Citing a lack of democratic consent over the implementation of the framework, they have blocked the Stormont Institutions. The EU and British government have no intentions to negotiate because of the cross-party support the framework enjoys.
It is vital that trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland remains as close to frictionless as possible. In 2021 the rest of the UK accounted for around 51.2% of NI external sales (sales to the rest of the UK and exports to the rest of the world), with the Republic of Ireland making up 42.5% of NI exports. A similar story can be seen in terms of NI imports from the rest of the UK and Ireland. Clearly any restrictions with NI’s two biggest trading partners would produce serious shocks to their economy. Still, further non-economic care needs to be taken when designing new trade policies. One, the maintenance of the Good Friday agreement, and two, ensuring a full Brexit. It is of the utmost importance that no border infrastructure between NI and Ireland is ever put in place. Despite many holding strong feelings regarding a hard Brexit, there is no appetite to risk increasing tensions as recent history leaves deep scars. Only after confirming that the NI-Ireland relationship is untouched can Brexit be considered. In this regard, a decrease in tight EU regulations and a reduction in EU legal power are the aims. Viewing the Windsor framework through this lens shows that while trade friction has decreased, Brexit is respected, and the DUP regrettably believes the Good Friday agreement to be jeopardized.
From a purely economic perspective, the Windsor framework is a small step in the right direction. The green lane allows easier access to the NI market for major trading partners, in theory this should encourage greater trade. In reality it likely only reduces wasted time spent on intensive and unnecessary paperwork. For most green lane traders, this will be encouraging news, but whether it will make a tangible difference to trade as opposed to quelling uncertainty remains to be seen. Strangely, despite the increased uncertainty surrounding post-Brexit Irish trade, there continues to be strong increases in imports and exports between the three parties. In 2021 there was a £2.3bn increase in cross border trade between NI and Ireland . So even when the significantly worse Northern Ireland Protocol was in place, trade appeared unaffected, even aided by Brexit. The Windsor framework's success, therefore, should be evaluated carefully in the coming years. There is no doubt, some form of solution was required over the Northern Ireland Protocol, but whether the Windsor framework will work especially well may be difficult to prove.
Written by Nicholas Stanfield